What do you think of my depression scenario?
Apr 06, 2010
in
Commercial Property Loans
The t-bill bond market is starting to falter, so we are looking at maybe failure by May, 2010.
Second wave of bad commercial real estate loans due in 2011.
No jobs, unless we continue to hire census employees for the next few years.
Several hundred, perhaps thousands of commercial banks will fail in the next 2 years.
The fed will be unable to sell bonds, and will resort to printing money to pay bills.
By 2012, we are looking at 18% unemployment, negative GDP, double digit inflation, gasoline at 12 a gallon, and fury in the streets.
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4 comments
23 and fabulous on April 6, 2010 at 11:48 pm
I think that the economy is bad, and that you shouldnt be so negative… Just prepare yourself for the worst, but hope for the best.
Will on April 6, 2010 at 11:48 pm
Plausible, but you left out the clincher — China.
Right now the Chinese economy is overheated, overextended, and like the Japanese economy of the 1980s, riding high on a real estate bubble of gigantic size that’s about two years away from popping. When it does, it’s going to make a noise that will be heard round the world.
badbyrd on April 6, 2010 at 11:48 pm
Sounds possible.
rkim777 on April 6, 2010 at 11:48 pm
I think it’s great that the media is hyping things up to be so bad. This is a great time to buy up commercial real estate as long as you know what you’re doing and you have access to the cash to do so. It is times like this when the newest wave of multimillionaires and multibillionaires will be created by taking the wealth and equity left behind by those who are panicking and who are sure that the sky is falling. I love this economic environment now and we are buying up commercial properties as fast as we can get them.
Part of our strategy is to focus on only cash-flowing properties now and the other part involves getting into these deals with only a minimal outlay of cash. We’ve created a program that allows us to buy commercial real estate with 99% financing so we only need 1% down payment to get into these deal. I’ve included a link to the program we are using now (disclosure: this is my website). As an example, we can now buy a $5 million property for only $50,000 down as opposed to what used to be the usual $1 million down required by conventional lenders, i.e., banks, if you can even get them to lend to you these days.