First wave of sub-prime mortgage defaults over.

Second wave of mortgage defaults coming now to higher quality credit risks. These are people who have bought homes in the last five years and who have taken out home equity loans. Mortgages now going under water owe more than house is worth. This wave of defaults will take upwards of 10 to 12 months to clear.

Third wave of mortgage defaults due to begin this year and continue through 2011 are Option Arms and Altay; as payments are automatically resetting to higher rates. We saw some fail last month because of a 3% rate hike, next month is the beginning of the end as rates start to climb even higher.
Estimated – 8 million defaults in next four years.

As if this is not enough we have the next huge failure to come in the commercial real estate market, that will make the sub-prime fiasco look like kids play!

Then comes credit cards and auto loans in the end.

Subject: From a retired Banker on the current fiasco!!! WORTH THE
READ…no matter who you favor for President–

FROM A RETIRED BANKER

Written by Jack Kelly
Thursday, 18 September 2008

Lending money to people who probably won’t pay it back isn’t good
Business. If you wrap crummy loans in a clever package, they’re still
crummy loans.

Your typical Wal Mart shopper understands this. But the Masters of the
Universe on Wall Street and in Washington evidently didn’t.

Ostensibly to aid the poor, the Clinton administration and Congress
Encouraged lenders to give mortgages to poor credit risks. The
Combination of easy money and the expansion of the number of borrowers
By extending loans to poor credit risks sent housing prices through the
roof, creating the bubble whose bursting has led to this crisis.
Congress in 1999 repealed the law (the Glass-Steagall Act) that
established a bright line between commercial and investment banks.
This meant bad investments by banks could jeopardize depositors.
Wall Street created ‘derivatives’ which multiplied profits in good
times, but which also multiplied risk if there were defaults.

Most important was corruption and mismanagement at the Federal National
Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage
corporation (Freddie Mac), which together controlled 90 percent of the
secondary mortgage market.

Once your bank has lent you money to buy a house, it can’t lend the
money again until you pay it back. But if your bank sells your
mortgage, it can make another loan right away. Without the secondary
market, most of the funds for home mortgages would dry up.

Fannie and Freddie went broke because they had bought billions of
dollars worth of subprime mortgages, on which borrowers defaulted when
the housing bubble popped. Fannie bought most of its bad mortgages from
Countrywide Financial, whose CEO, Angelo Mozilo, gave sweetheart loans
to senior executives of Fannie Mae.

Fannie and Freddie cooked their books so senior executives would be
paid millions of dollars in bonuses to which they were not entitled.
Inadequate regulation kept the book-cooking from being discovered
until the crisis had become a catastrophe.

President Bush proposed regulatory reforms in 2003 but Congress took
no action. In 2005, John McCain and three other GOP senators proposed
a strong reform bill. It died when Democrats threatened a
filibuster.
When the bill was reintroduced in this Congress, Sen. Chris Dodd, the
New Democratic chairman of Banking Committee, refused even to hold a
hearing on it.

Democrats opposed reform in part because they feared it would mean
fewer loans to poor people.

‘Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are not facing any kind of financial
Crisis,’ Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass, told the New York Times when the
Bush bill was introduced. ‘The more pressure there is on these
Companies, the less we will see in terms of affordable housing.’

So let’s look at how we got here:

ILLUSIONS

Big part of what makes the American Dream is hope. However unrealistic, uneducated, and misinformed choices replace hope with illusions.

Buyers had the illusion that homes would always keep increasing rapidly in value. However, they failed to understand that the real estate market has cycles. Some of the factors that create a change in the market are increased amounts of supply or demand, deregulation of the financial industry, easy and available credit, low interest rates and much more.

People who bought homes they could not afford did it because they saw an opportunity to “invest” their life savings and achieve the American dream. They viewed this opportunity as attainable because banks made it possible, unscrupulous agents/brokers made them believe it was possible, and because they lacked the knowledge necessary to understand the responsibilities, risks and benefits of owning a home.

Other illusions buyers had was their wages. The had the illusion that their wages would go up enough year after year to cover their ever increasing debt due to a lavish life style. This illusion, the lack of financial education and self-control allowed for people to live well beyond their means.

Today people, banks, and our government are drowning in debt.

CREDIT

Competition in the market forces business to improve on their products and allows the consumer to purchase those products at affordable prices. However, competition between banks in a booming economy and low interest rates created a credit bonanza.

Instead of banks improving on their products and services, they began utilizing creative financial tools to attract more borrowers. They also lend money to risky borrowers with little regard of their qualifications. Anybody that had a pulse could literally get a loan.

Banks can’t accommodate the demand for credit only with their money reserves. So if they want to lend more money, they sell these mortgages to commercial banks and Wall Street lenders.

Financial Crisis: Who’s Fault Is It, Anyway?

Doesn’t matter.

Because just about everyone is to blame.

Republicans opened the door through debt-based credit derivatives and deregulation. Democrats further contributed by turning a blind eye to Fannie and Freddie and insisting that even those who couldn’t really afford mortgages be allowed to get them. The Bush Administration touted consumer spending as a means to boost the economy, and encouraged reckless consumer behaviors with billions in "stimulus"money, all while fueling the national debt through a disastrous war and tax cuts for people who don’t really need them.

And, of course, greedy banks and mortgage lenders went along, doing their best to bilk whoever came through door for whatever they could get — before passing the risk on to equally greedy investment banks and hedge fund managers. Consumers came along for the ride, abandoning reasonable financial practices and using credit to fuel materialism — as well as making poor decisions by buying homes they couldn’t afford with "creative" mortgage financing.

Nearly everyone shares some of the blame. This is not the time to bicker over who is most at fault. It doesn’t matter. The past is past. It’s time to move forward and fix the problem. REALLY fix the problem. With practical solutions (that’s right, follow the link for just one alternative — and better IMO — solution) that don’t involve throwing a large, arbitrary amount of money at the problem.

This is something that requires measured thought. And a change in how our society now views debt, money and the economy. There’s no reason to rush into a bailout plan right now. Instead, a little more analysis is needed.

I am a bit frustrated. I have been in sales for about 10 years, auto sales, then mortgages(loan officer and an account executive for a lender) The company I worked for recently went out of business and I have been looking for a golden opportunity to come my way, but it is much tougher than I thought. It may sound cliche, but I don’t really care what I am doing, to an extent, if the money is there. I have been looking into pretty much all sales fields, insurance, real estate(commercial and residential), medical sales, recruiting, investments, etc, but have not found what I am looking for, which to tell you the truth I am not really sure what that is. I am still young(28) and am willing to start over in an industry and pay my dues, I just don’t know where to look, as far as industry goes. I am a hard worker and am educated, I just want a career with a lot of potential. Any help? Thank you

A local rental company is liquidating, and I was curious what the best way to purchase multiple properties at the same time would be. In the past I have always purchased properties on individual mortgages, or multiple on land-contract. Is it possible to get one loan to cover multiple properties for purchase? For refinance? Would this have to be a commercial lender? Thanks for any help.

My husband and I are considering holding private mort.'s. Generally we buy "disaster" properties (cash only deals), fix them up, sell them or rent them out . . . However, with the jumbo loan crisis we're think we'd be better off holding mortgages for Alt A types . . . Any thoughts . . . I've talked with my agent in Florida and she said that homes with privately held mort.'s are the only ones selling . . .