Opening a tanning salon(something neat and sophisticated looking.) has been in my plans since I was about 14. All during high school I was home schooled and I worked for my dad cleaning newly constructed houses/businesses before they were put on the market for sale or lease. That is until things went under and he had to file for bankruptcy on all of the residential and commercial real estate that he developed. The I went to Costco for 2 years. From the 4 or so years I worked during school, I hoarded nearly every penny I made so I could fulfill my dream as an entrepreneur when I graduated from high school.

Right after graduating from the Fulton County Public School System, I was set and went out looking for SOMETHING else to do to start my career in a self-owned business. Everything exceeded what my budget was set on until my dads good friends’ dad was retiring and selling his repo company. So, I knew then at that time that was my opportunity. Luckily he allowed me to finance everything since he owned the stuff and he also let me walk in his lot that he’s now leasing to me.

So I’ve been in the repossession/recovery business for over a year now and with the economy HOPEFULLY shaping up, I’ve really been thinking about getting rid of my trucks & selling everything(of course after I have another main source of income coming in). The main reason is because I fear in about 2-3 years from now, this economy will have improved greatly and there won’t be as much recovery work to cover all of my expenses associated with my company.

—OK so now my story about my young life is over, I’ll get to my main concern-

Although I’m only 19 now, I’ve had credit since I was 15(I lied about my DOB on credit card apps which has now been corrected with all 3 credit bureaus). Every since then I ALWAYS did right and kept my credit immaculate as it still is. My Transunion FICO through MyFico is at 738 and is slowly rising as my accounts grow older and as my personal vehicle is on its way to being fully paid off. I do have credit cards, but have {content} in credit card debt.

Since Mar. 8th 2009 to Dec. 31st 2009, my company has grossed approx. 0K. That number may be fairly large, but considering I have 3 other drivers/employees I pay commission to, repo insurance(nearly K for not even the full year), rent on my ex-car lot(just over K for not even the full year), tax, all utilities, and after going ahead and paying my "agent" off for financing the PC’s, software, trucks etc., that number was lowered significantly. Fortunately, 2010 so far is just as busy as it has been for the past 10 months and I’m even having to send repo orders back to finance companies from not having enough time to do them all(I’m not buying another truck).

Like I said, I’m really thinking about going into the tanning business and it’s a decision I’ll have to make between now and the next 2-3 years.

Would someone like me at my age(I will be 21-22yo then) have a hard time being approved for a 0K+ loan with the following factors:

Company grossed 0K.(Honestly I want to leave this out of the app.)
I netted about 0K during the last 3 quarters of ‘09.(before all of my personal bills/expenses.)
I have roughly K in assets(2 recovery trucks, a money market account, and other misc. things).
I have 3 checking accounts(2 personal, 1 business)
I have 2 savings accounts.
I have tax forms that have been filed and I also have bank and broker statements to prove my income.
I have above average+ personal credit but no business credit.(no debt besides personal vehicle which will be paid off in 2 years or sooner)
I have the knowledge, skill and common sense to know how to properly run a business.
I can produce a legitimate business proposal.
Hopefully within the next 2 or so years all of my assets and everything else will have grown.(if it doesn’t there’s a problem. lol)

I know this is a lot of info, but my life ahead is really sticking to my nerves and I need support. I saw how my dad went from one minute having a lot of real estate to the next minute having to dig into his retirement money, and I want to avoid this by all means possible.

I could be making a mistake by wanting to stop repossessing vehicles but as I said, I feel when this economy shapes up I won’t even be grossing enough to cover everything and I don’t want to lose my ***.

The big question, how will banks view my status when attempting to obtain a commercial loan for roughly 0K? Would it be best if I go through the SBA? Could I get the loan w/o having to include my total grossed income? I’m literally fretting over these things.

Thank all of you guys for your support.

I’m talking about commercial real estate? Forgot about that one did you DEMS? And you want to know why I think Stock Markets are going to crash? Look no further than commercial real estate loans going bad….The housing crises is small potatoes compared to this….Comments?

Seems the trend commercial real estate loss could reach 40-50% this year, so commercial loans could default, not to mention consumer Option-ARMs and Alt-A loans resetting , which is more likely than not to plunge the US economy back into a another recession or worse depression. I don’t see inflation as a problem now but more deflation. I would like to hear other opinions and please pass this question on. So … how would you counter invest this possibility? Diversity seems obvious, but in what categories?
Basics such as agriculture may become a prime opportunity, perhaps even more than precious metals?

First wave of sub-prime mortgage defaults over.

Second wave of mortgage defaults coming now to higher quality credit risks. These are people who have bought homes in the last five years and who have taken out home equity loans. Mortgages now going under water owe more than house is worth. This wave of defaults will take upwards of 10 to 12 months to clear.

Third wave of mortgage defaults due to begin this year and continue through 2011 are Option Arms and Altay; as payments are automatically resetting to higher rates. We saw some fail last month because of a 3% rate hike, next month is the beginning of the end as rates start to climb even higher.
Estimated – 8 million defaults in next four years.

As if this is not enough we have the next huge failure to come in the commercial real estate market, that will make the sub-prime fiasco look like kids play!

Then comes credit cards and auto loans in the end.

According to the nations largest commercial real estate firm, Marcus and Millichap, lenders are not liquidating distressed properties. Instead they are holding them and collecting the income until the market changes by paying management companies to run and improve the cash flow of the foreclosed businesses, shopping centers, apartments, etc.

All of a sudden banks are seriously in the commercial real estate business! They are not making new loans. Commercial loans and SBA loans are down somewhere like 95 percent this year!

Since banks made bad decisions to begin with why are they allowed to hold these assets instead of liquidate them like they should? A troubled bank should not be able to afford to hold these assets, let alone hire a management company. Are they able to afford it because of the bailout?

I am real estate salesperson for the commercial real estate industry and I’m upset because without loans, I have no business. Commercial sales in my office is down like 90 percent this year, and I work in an office with like 250 agents!

You are analyzing a commercial real estate investment that generates a net operating income of ,000,000 which increases by 3.5 percent per year. The purchase price is million, the land value is 20 percent of the total property value, the holding period is 10 years, the nominal income tax rate is 28 percent, the recapture tax rate is 25 percent and the long-term capital gain tax rate is 15 percent. A lender is willing to provide financing for the 10 year holding period with a 25 year amortization period for a fixed rate of 7 percent based on a loan to value ratio of 75 percent (25 percent equity). Calculate the before and after tax IRR and NPV based on a discount rate of 400 basis points above the going in cap rate and a terminal cap rate of 100 basis points over the going in cap rate. The cost of sale is three percent. What is the debt coverage ratio in year five?
I don’t expect anyone to do the math and answer this for me, but steps to solving it would be beneficial. I do not want the answer and I don’t want anyone to "do my homework" for me. It’s not homework either. I am just having a hard time figuring it out, especially the NPV and IRR. Any steps or comments would be much appreciated. Thanks

MIAMI – Like many home owners, hotels are starting to drown in debt.

They have been enticing travelers all year with sweet deals: credits for in-house spas and restaurants, up to 50 percent off five-star rooms, even free nights.

But all that discounting hasn’t stopped occupancy from dropping an average of 10 percent. The result? Hotel loans have begun falling into delinquency faster than any other kind of commercial real estate debt.

The rising defaults paint a grim picture for an industry with increasingly more rooms than guests, and more hotels still opening every day. It’s a problem that could get worse before it gets better, with demand expected to remain weak and ambitious new projects planned before the meltdown worsening the room glut.

The oversupply means room rates should stay low for at least another year, good news for consumers but not so great for hotel owners and the banks that lent them the cash to build or buy.

The rise in delinquencies is sharp. Five times more hotel loans are behind on payments this year than in 2008, according to mortgage data firm Trepp LLC, which tracks those traded by investors. In October, 8.7 percent were distressed, compared with 1.5 percent last year.

That’s almost double the 4.8 percent rate for commercial property and the 4.5 percent rate for stores.

Seems like people would be extremely concerned about a bankrupt govt. who can’t cover money they’ve already insured spending trillions more.

I understand FDIC could borrow money to cover any shorfalls (like the post office and a number of other debt creating federal agencies) but how long can this possibly last??

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090922/ap_on_bi_ge/us_banks_fdic_bailout

Regulators have approached big banks about borrowing billions to shore up the dwindling fund that insures regular deposit accounts.

The loans would go to the fund maintained by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. that insure depositors when banks fail, said two industry officials familiar with the conversations, who requested anonymity because the plans are still evolving.

Regulators also are considering levying a special emergency fee on all banks, charging regular fees early or tapping a 0 billion credit line with the U.S. Treasury, the officials said.

FDIC spokesman Andrew Gray said that while borrowing from the banks "is an option, it’s not being given serious consideration." The board meeting where the plans will be discussed is scheduled for next week.

But a government official familiar with the FDIC board’s thinking said earlier Tuesday that the plan was being considered. He requested anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the matter.

The fund, which insures deposit accounts up to 0,000, is at its lowest point since 1992, at the height of the savings-and-loan crisis. Ongoing losses on commercial real estate and other loans continue to cause multiple bank failures each week.

FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair wants to avoid tapping the Treasury credit line, and Treasury officials insist that the strongest big banks have enough extra capital to operate, the officials said. Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan, who is a voting member of the FDIC board, has said he doesn’t want to levy another fee on banks while the industry is still recovering.

FDIC is going to BORROW money in order to insure accounts. Well if the people that INSURE THE BANK ACCOUNTS don’t have any money, isn’t the whole system on the verge of collapse??

And in retrospect, isn’t the REAL reason the banks got bailed out because FDIC would have taken down the federal govt. with the TRILLIONS it is currently insuring?? (TRILLIONS it doesn’t have)

Too big to fail = if you fail, the govt.fails too

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090922/ap_on_bi_ge/us_banks_fdic_bailout

Regulators have approached big banks about borrowing billions to shore up the dwindling fund that insures regular deposit accounts.

The loans would go to the fund maintained by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. that insure depositors when banks fail, said two industry officials familiar with the conversations, who requested anonymity because the plans are still evolving.

Regulators also are considering levying a special emergency fee on all banks, charging regular fees early or tapping a 0 billion credit line with the U.S. Treasury, the officials said.

FDIC spokesman Andrew Gray said that while borrowing from the banks "is an option, it’s not being given serious consideration." The board meeting where the plans will be discussed is scheduled for next week.

But a government official familiar with the FDIC board’s thinking said earlier Tuesday that the plan was being considered. He requested anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the matter.

The fund, which insures deposit accounts up to 0,000, is at its lowest point since 1992, at the height of the savings-and-loan crisis. Ongoing losses on commercial real estate and other loans continue to cause multiple bank failures each week.

FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair wants to avoid tapping the Treasury credit line, and Treasury officials insist that the strongest big banks have enough extra capital to operate, the officials said. Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan, who is a voting member of the FDIC board, has said he doesn’t want to levy another fee on banks while the industry is still recovering.
brown………and?

There is a " Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility " whichi is supposed to " get credit flowing more normally again," It is for a trillion in lending for households and businesses, especially commercial real estate which is not doing so well lately

"Under the program, which got off to a slow start in March, the Fed provides loans to investors. They use the money to buy newly issued securities backed by auto and student loans, credit cards, business equipment, commercial real estate and loans guaranteed by the Small Business Administration."

Do you think this will get us out of the recession, or do you think it will get us into deeper trouble?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090925/ap_on_bi_ge/us_bernanke

A trillion dollar commercial real estate crisis will begin to unfold in 2010, when short term loans must be refinanced, yet commercial property values have plummeted.

As many as 500 regional banks may fail as commercial loans default, and the FDIC only has 10 billion left to cover insolvent banks. Compounding this Deuthsche Bank forecasts that 48% of home mortgages will owe more than the home is worth by the end of 2011.

Commercial real estate loans? How do they work
How do developers get money to build huge skyscrapers?
How do they pay these loans back?
I need details.

Commercial real estate loans? How do they work
How do developers get money to build huge skyscrapers?
How do they pay these loans back?
I need details.

I’ve been looking into investing in multi-family/commercial real estate near Cincinnati. I was talking to an old friend of mine about the possibility of no-money-down purchases. He said one deal he has been successful with in the past is where the purchase contract stipulates that you pay a 10% balloon payment due in 2 years, and that serves as the down payment. Have you seen anything similar to this? It seems pretty hard to manage unless you have a young desperate seller. However I would like to know if such easy transactions exist for investors with little to no capital.

I am interested in getting into commercial real estate, not sure what area….leasing, property management, lending, loan officer, I know it sounds cliche, but I basically just want to go where some big money can be made. I have a background in residential real estate as a loan officer and Account Executive for a subprime lender. From what I hear, people on the commercial side make some great money, it just seems that everyone wants someone with commercial experience. I am willing to pay my dues, training, mentoring, etc, but I just need to find somewhere to get my foot in the door. Any help?!

I am a licensed commercial real estate agent in phoenix, az, and am interested in providing insurance and mortgage services to my clients,essentially I want to be able to shop 5 lenders/insurance companies to provide my clients the best deals.

How do I identify 5 banks/insurance companies that do commercial transactions?

How much money can I make by providing these additional services assuming that all transactions are more than 300K ( for loans + insurance)

Thanks

I am a licensed commercial real estate agent in phoenix, az, and am interested in providing insurance and mortgage services to my clients,essentially I want to be able to shop 5 lenders/insurance companies to provide my clients the best deals.

How do I identify 5 banks/insurance companies that do commercial transactions?

How much money can I make by providing these additional services assuming that all transactions are more than 300K ( for loans + insurance)

Thanks

Reagan came to office in 1981 and soon after he presided over the dramatic deregulation of the nation’s savings and loan industry allowing S&Ls to end their reliance on home mortgages and engage in an orgy of commercial real estate speculation. The result was widespread corruption, mismanagement and the collapse of hundreds of thrift institutions that ultimately led to a taxpayer bailout that cost hundreds of billions of dollars.
Senior. When Reagan de-regularized the Saving Banks he invited them for game of corruption.
When George W Bush administration abandoned its role to over watch the mortgage banks it invited crises as we see now.
The ultra-ultra conservatives refuse to concede that without government supervision their will be corruption.
Nac. Do not get personal.
Bo. The Dems respect the role of the government. The Repub mantra is that the Government is the source of all evil. Now George W Bush who is Born Again ultra conservative did very bad job to monitor the mortgage industry bringing with it the crises we are in.
No one is talking about the Air Lines and I am not going to fall into this diversion trap.

In the USA, I read on the Securities Exchange Commission Website ( SEC) that Hedge Funds do not have to register with the SEC.
Are there any companies that offer a list of hedge funds for free? The reason I’m asking, is that I broker Commercial Loans. Typically, when I approach a hedge fund for financing on commercial real estate financing, I wind-up having to call other Loan brokers to get the names of the Hedge funds that they have gone to, and of course, I wind-up having to pay those brokers and sign non-disclosures just to get the name of the hedge fund that they used. I sick of dealing with other loan brokers, How can I get a list of Hedge Funds that I can apply to without having to go through other loan brokers?

am currently looking for a cash loan for my company of ,000.00 to 40K secured by Commercial real estate! Contact me at 301-473-9041.

The company name is The Della Group, LLC. I own 1 gas station in Allegany, MD right on I-68 . I need the money for cash flow reasons & to purchase inventory. Please call me after 6PM Eastern time or email me anytime. Serious inquiries only. ..Please, only US lenders…No suggestions from Britian or Europe requesting my info.

Email -Mispola@yahoo.com

Thanks.

such as in buying commercial real estate, will it be able to act as in the passbook loan, as the property itself is pledged and it has a positive cash flow to carry the loan ?

Today on the news they were just telling us the American people what their plan was. Obama seems to be content with it so i dont know. But
i must say this doesn’t sound like what i thought he was trying to do.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said she expects her agency will finance as much as 0 billion in purchases of residential and commercial real estate loans.

okay so let me get this right.. The banks screwed us cause well their good talkers. Screwed themselves. We pay money we dont have. Alot of americans lost their homes due to greedy banks and people making us loose our job and our homes in forecloser. And now with our money they buy our homes with our money?

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=3906861&cl=12618169&ch=4226720&src=news

Wouldn’t it been better to just buy the houses from the start and let us stay in their and have some sort of i.o.u. policy?

what do you think?

I’ve been a commercial real estate agent for 5 years now and for the first 4 years it was going fine. However, as many of you know, commercial real estate loans are going bad, and along with it, many banks are not lending. My brokerage is a very specialized brokerage. It is a car wash brokerage. Many commercial real estate brokers specialize in hotels, office buildings, apartments, etc. My business partner and I specialize in car washes. Unfortunately for us, most banks will not lend money on a car wash. They are still much more lenient on apartments, hotels, offices, but car washes have been very very bad investments for banks coming out of the real estate boom. As a result, I do not see my brokerage doing ANY deals this year, or in the near future. In the meantime I’m running out of cash and fast.What should I do? Since I’m technically self employed I have plenty of time to search for a job, but the reality is that if I was truly serious about leaving this career now, I would simply quit and start a new career asap. I’m 29 years old and started doing this right out of college. I feel confident that I can take a pay cut and start a new career somewhere else. At this point it seems almost inevitable that I’m going to have quit soon. My question, therefore, is does it make a difference if I search for a job only part time, or should I quit now and put all my effort into finding a job now while I still can afford to pay rent, and still have some money in the bank? 10 pts for best answer.
Well I’d like to continue doing something in the real estate world, but I don’t have time to just limit it to real estate so I’m applying to all kinds of jobs. I’m in Los Angeles so jobs are far and few. If all else fails I’m thinking of joining the Navy as an Officer.

I’ve been a commercial real estate agent for 5 years now and for the first 4 years it was going fine. However, as many of you know, commercial real estate loans are going bad, and along with it, many banks are not lending. My brokerage is a very specialized brokerage. It is a car wash brokerage. Many commercial real estate brokers specialize in hotels, office buildings, apartments, etc. My business partner and I specialize in car washes. Unfortunately for us, most banks will not lend money on a car wash. They are still much more lenient on apartments, hotels, offices, but car washes have been very very bad investments for banks coming out of the real estate boom. As a result, I do not see my brokerage doing ANY deals this year, or in the near future. In the meantime I’m running out of cash and fast.What should I do? Since I’m technically self employed I have plenty of time to search for a job, but the reality is that if I was truly serious about leaving this career now, I would simply quit and start a new career asap. I’m 29 years old and started doing this right out of college. I feel confident that I can take a pay cut and start a new career somewhere else. At this point it seems almost inevitable that I’m going to have quit soon. My question, therefore, is does it make a difference if I search for a job only part time, or should I quit now and put all my effort into finding a job now while I still can afford to pay 3 more months rent, and still have some money for food?
I appreciate the optimism guys but at this point a change in course is highly unlikely for me. My business partner just started our new marketing campaign and we are indeed headed in a new direction: apartments. However, I have about 4 months left before I’m broke, and since we are untested in the apartment market I think it would be prudent to either (a) jump ship now or (b) get a new career.

I form non bias opinion on answers. I will provide evidence on why we are in a recession. If you don’t agree then that is you’re own decision and it is respected by me. However I will challenge you to see what parts of this info is not seen in the market…and why it cannot be defined as a recession.

THIS IS LONG BUT IT PROVIDES REASON FOR WHY IT IS A RECESSION:
The public was addressed by the secretary of state three weeks ago with the state of our economy. It was concluded there was a sign of recession on way. However, many believe this started in November as did the subrime lending create decrease in mortgage lending. I am one of those people. I don’t believe that subrime lending was the only cause. So since subrime lending fiasco started two consecutive periods ago….this indeed has led to a economic fall. GDP is important…and I have seen it fall also…but it has not reached two consecutive periods…but it will, no doubt. (that is my own opinion) Note that the GDP-growth (real seasonally adjusted annual rate) for the last quarter of 2007 was 0.6[31] as revised on February 28, 2008. It was 2.2 for all of 2007.

Nouriel Roubini has outlined a harsh 12-step scenario.[32]

U.S. home prices will fall between 20% and 30% from their peak. NYTimes chart ALSO TODAY IT WAS ANNOUNCED THEY HAVE FALLEN 60%
Losses to the financial system from the subprime disaster, as high as 0 billion, are now spreading to near-prime and prime mortgages.
The recession will lead to a sharp increase in defaults on other forms of unsecured consumer debt.
Monoline insurance companies will take losses on their insurance of residential mortgage-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations and other asset-backed securities products, which are much higher than the billion-to- billion rescue package that regulators are trying to arrange.
The commercial real estate loan market will soon enter into a meltdown similar to the subprime one.
Some large regional or even national banks that are very exposed to mortgages, residential and commercial, may go bankrupt. Bear Stearns Companies, Inc. collapsed on March 16, 2008, and was bought out by JP Morgan Chase.
Banks’ losses will grow as a result of hundreds of billions of dollars of leveraged loans on their balance sheets at values well below par, currently about 90 cents on the dollar.
Once a severe recession starts, a massive wave of corporate defaults will take place. Typically U.S. corporate default rates are about 3.8% (1971-2007); in 2006 and 2007 this figure was a rather low 0.6%. And in a typical U.S. recession such default rates surge above 10%.
The “shadow banking system” (as defined by Pimco, it is composed by non-bank financial institutions that borrow short and in liquid forms and lend or invest long in more illiquid assets), will soon get into serious trouble.
Stock markets in the U.S. and overseas will start pricing in a severe U.S. recession and a sharp global economic slowdown.
The credit crunch that is affecting most credit markets and credit derivative markets will lead to a drying up of liquidity in several financial markets, including otherwise very liquid derivatives markets.
A vicious cycle of losses, capital reduction, credit contraction, forced liquidation of assets at below fundamental prices will ensue, leading to further credit contraction
Any questions?
John…man are you serious…"labeling"?

C’mon…now. GDP is gonna say the same thing I pulled off wikipedia. So what are you getting at? You have to come out with something more than characterizing my question as labeling. No offense…i mean you are the only one that answered in 30 minutes. So its looking like people aren’t conflicting with a recession being here. Thats good.
Good answer though.
Piatchi..thats a great analogy…lol. Bear Sterns was baught by JP Morgan and Chase when it had substancial losses…but hey it DID survive the depression. Just take a look at any site it will give more info. Thanks for answer.

I form non bias opinion on answers. I will provide evidence on why we are in a recession. If you don’t agree then that is you’re own decision and it is respected by me. However I will challenge you to see what parts of this info is not seen in the market…and why it cannot be defined as a recession.

THIS IS LONG BUT IT PROVIDES REASON FOR WHY IT IS A RECESSION:
The public was addressed by the secretary of state three weeks ago with the state of our economy. It was concluded there was a sign of recession on way. However, many believe this started in November as did the subrime lending create decrease in mortgage lending. I am one of those people. I don’t believe that subrime lending was the only cause. So since subrime lending fiasco started two consecutive periods ago….this indeed has led to a economic fall. GDP is important…and I have seen it fall also…but it has not reached two consecutive periods…but it will, no doubt. (that is my own opinion) Note that the GDP-growth (real seasonally adjusted annual rate) for the last quarter of 2007 was 0.6[31] as revised on February 28, 2008. It was 2.2 for all of 2007.

Nouriel Roubini has outlined a harsh 12-step scenario.[32]

U.S. home prices will fall between 20% and 30% from their peak. NYTimes chart ALSO TODAY IT WAS ANNOUNCED THEY HAVE FALLEN 60%
Losses to the financial system from the subprime disaster, as high as 0 billion, are now spreading to near-prime and prime mortgages.
The recession will lead to a sharp increase in defaults on other forms of unsecured consumer debt.
Monoline insurance companies will take losses on their insurance of residential mortgage-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations and other asset-backed securities products, which are much higher than the billion-to- billion rescue package that regulators are trying to arrange.
The commercial real estate loan market will soon enter into a meltdown similar to the subprime one.
Some large regional or even national banks that are very exposed to mortgages, residential and commercial, may go bankrupt. Bear Stearns Companies, Inc. collapsed on March 16, 2008, and was bought out by JP Morgan Chase.
Banks’ losses will grow as a result of hundreds of billions of dollars of leveraged loans on their balance sheets at values well below par, currently about 90 cents on the dollar.
Once a severe recession starts, a massive wave of corporate defaults will take place. Typically U.S. corporate default rates are about 3.8% (1971-2007); in 2006 and 2007 this figure was a rather low 0.6%. And in a typical U.S. recession such default rates surge above 10%.
The “shadow banking system” (as defined by Pimco, it is composed by non-bank financial institutions that borrow short and in liquid forms and lend or invest long in more illiquid assets), will soon get into serious trouble.
Stock markets in the U.S. and overseas will start pricing in a severe U.S. recession and a sharp global economic slowdown.
The credit crunch that is affecting most credit markets and credit derivative markets will lead to a drying up of liquidity in several financial markets, including otherwise very liquid derivatives markets.
A vicious cycle of losses, capital reduction, credit contraction, forced liquidation of assets at below fundamental prices will ensue, leading to further credit contraction
I agree. One "economist" proceeded to call me every name in the book and told me i don’t understand propensity. This is nothing but coin-tossing guestimations.

Serious answers…
10 points best answer.

I’m in my early 20s, and I’ve always wanted to be a real estate agent. I kmow someone who does it part time, but we live in New York State. Even though the economy is bad and is affecting the real estate market, isn’t a good time to get in the business if there are so many foreclosures? Because of buying homes cheaper than the orignal price? But, then again the banks aren’t giving out a lot of loans…Is there anything that is prospering related to real estate right now? Probably commercial real estate, but I would have to college for it, right? I went for Business, and Marketing. So, I don’t think I would be able…

Are there locations in the United States that are doing better in real estate? People still need homes in this economy. And what other things could I do related to being an agent, that will help me still be able to sell and buy homes??? I need some ideas…

THANKS FOR YOUR HELP!!!

1. Swine Flu Second Wave: Typically, influenza outbreaks come in waves, getting worse with each one. The very ease with which we seem to have survived the first wave of swine flu may make us vulnerable to a horrific second wave.

2. Commercial Real Estate Collapse: Various commercial real estate deals face trillions in refinancing obligations over the coming years. But the market is practically closed, ensuring massive bankruptcies and restructuring.

Why are lenders so freaked out? Because existing loans are going sour at a pace unlike anything we’ve seen in history. Because of that, even commercial real estate properties with strong cash flows are finding financing extremely difficult to come by.

3. The Option Adjustable Rate Mortgage Explosion: Anyone referring to the "subprime crisis" has got to get with the program. The subprime wave of defaults is basically over. Now the question is, what about all the other types of mortgages? You know, Option ARM, Alt-As and of course, good old fashioned prime mortgage.

The big wave of Option ARM resets has yet to come, and given the drop in home prices, refinancing won’t be realistic. Let’s hope the homeowners can afford their new monthly payments.

4. Global Food Crisis: As we saw last year, the global food supply teeters on the edge of adequacy. Any serious shock–floods in the Midwest, a war in Asia, social unrest in China, political upheaval in Thailand or Egypt–could result in shortages in countries that import large amounts of their food.

5. Israel Bombs Iran: The Obama administration’s openness to the Iranian regime may have the perverse effect of emboldening its nuclear ambitions. Very likely, the fears of the nuclear Iran are over-stated. It would probably behave like most members of the global nuke club, cowed by its own destructive power into behaving responsibly.

But Iran isn’t the only country to worry about in the region. Israel may not be willing to tolerate a nuclear armed Iran, and may choose to strike out to destroy Iran’s nascent nuclear capabilities. This would obvious raise tensions throughout the Middle East. At the very least, oil prices will likely spike and remain elevated following any military action against Iran. This, in turn, will slow the global economy.

6. A Wave of Municipal Defaults: Historically, cities and states don’t default on their loans very much. But as Warren Buffett pointed out, historical results don’t mean jack because muni insurance wasn’t around. Unless it gets a bailout, California may go bankrupt, causing the muni market to seize up, bringing public works and spending to a halt, kneecapping GDP.

At that point, with no ability to borrow, the other states will rush to default themselves, sparing their taxpayers any more pain.

7. Another Bank Run: It seems unlikely, given the government’s implicit guarantee of the banking sector, but it’s always possible that investors or lenders could lose confidence in one of the banks again, prompting a financing run a la Bear Stearns.

If this happened, we’d be back to square one with all the confidence and bailouts since Lehman’s collapse — only, the government would have fewer bullets left in the gun.

8. Runaway Inflation: The Federal Reserve seems confident that it can "land the recovery." Is it right?

There’s good reason to be skeptical that the Fed will be able to reduce the monetary base before it floods out into the economy, driving up prices and destroying savings. For one thing, the Fed has never really been very good at doing this. By the time the Fed realizes that inflation is taking off, it may be too late.

9. North Korean Missile Launch: Wee dictator Kim Jong II has lulled the world to sleep, performing missile tests on a seemingly daily basis. What was once a cause for alarm now barely merits a bulletin on CNBC. In fact, the dollar has rallied on the nervousness.

But his neighbors in China, South Korea and Japan are freaked out and an actual war, or genuine provocation, could wreak havoc on far eastern trade. This might cause investors to flee towards the dollar, but it would be terrible for markets and economic activity.

10. Chinese Financial Crisis: Most economic discussion of China these days is about how dependent the US government has become on China buying Treasury bonds. But China has lately learned that its own economy is dangerously leveraged on foreign demand for Chinese manufactured goods. The global downturn has helped expose the fragility of the Chinese economic miracle, and worse might be coming.

A collapse of profits in China could very well spark a banking crisis, much like the collapse of real estate prices did to US financial institutions. Very little attention has been paid to the fragility of the Chinese financial system, which is dominated by large, slow, non-transparent, often corrupt state-run banks and centralized decision making. Slowing exports could be the tide that goes out and reveals whi

I have a piece of commercial real estate that has been listed with 3 different reality company over a period of 3 years. All have failed to produce a lookers let alone a buyer. My location is an off the beaten path western montana, ranching/ tourist community with an in town population of under a1000 people.
We have 60-90 days before the bank (an SBA loan) can call the note.
Should we yet again change realtor’s or should we lower the already rock bottom price, save the commission, lower the price again and give it a whirl our selfs?

Here’s a clip from the AP story:Commercial real estate developers said Monday they also are petitioning the government for support from the 0 billion rescue fund. The Real Estate Roundtable said an estimated 0 billion of commercial real estate mortgages will come due by the end of 2009 without adequate refinancing options.

Industry officials said thousands of office buildings, hotels, shopping centers and other commercial buildings could be headed into foreclosure or bankruptcy unless the government provides support.

Jeffrey D. DeBoer, president of the Real Estate Roundtable, said the industry has written to federal officials asking to be included in a new 0 billion loan program being run by the Federal Reserve, with support from the financial bailout program, to bolster the market for credit card debt, auto loans and student loans.

DeBoer said the commercial real estate industry would like to see that program expanded to cover their properties or have a similar program begun to help their industry.

So I had to ask Banks car companies and now maybe commercial real estate developers… So where will the government getting around to helping those in real need… American families???
Well said Toopy but I still have to point out these are the very same people who landed us in this mess and they rather then step-up and try to fix the mess they made the go whining about needing more money because we little guys can no longer afford their services.