Here it is:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/07/why-wallison-is-wrong-about-the-genesis-of-the-u-s-housing-crisis/

Nice quote. Note the references to REPUBLICAN lawmakers.

"Wallison [blamed F&F for the meltdown], of course, wrote a lonely dissent from both the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission majority report and from his fellow Republican commissioners, in which he alone blamed the global financial crisis on U.S. affordable housing policies. This argument is clearly contradicted by the facts, including the following:

• Parallel bubble-bust cycles occurred outside of the residential housing markets (for example, in commercial real estate and consumer credit).
• Parallel financial crises struck other countries, which did not have analogous affordable housing policies
• The U.S. government’s market share of home mortgages was actually declining precipitously during the housing bubble of the 2000s.

These facts are irrefutable."
Apparently, some cannot read and respond to facts. Just change the subject and hope no one notices.

I am looking to purchase commercial real estate for private use with a loan. I want the property in my name and not a business name. Do I need to get a commercial property loan or can I get a standard mortgage through my bank? I’m curious to know what my options are.

Trying to understand this statement "permanent loans on commercial real estate with amortizations ranging from 15-25 years and maturities of 5-7 years". How can a loan have a 5 year maturity and a 25 year amortization? If it matures at five years, I would’ve thought that is when the loan is due so there would be no further amortization, on the other hand if it is amortized over 25 years, it couldn’t possibly be "mature" at five years.

Clearly I’m not understanding something here.

Thanx for your help,

My partner bought his first house in January and we havent had any trouble making the repayments on his wages alone. I recently graduated with my BHSc but even so my nett income is only around 2500p/month at the moment. I’m thinking about buying a small (tiny!) office in a trendy area for 92K and to start consulting from there 2 days per week and keep my current part time jobs as well. I’ve never had any credit besides my HEX and don’t have a deposit. Is it even possible for me to get a loan? What do you think? I have a feeling that the room might be difficult to rent so if the consulting doesn’t work out I’d have to sell or hold as an investment. I’m in Australia so I’d love to hear replies from people who have a good knowledge of the commercial real estate situation here. Would I qualify for any first home buyer or stamp duty benefits? What would the total loan amount need to be to cover all the fees, charges, taxes etc? I would also need 5-7K for equipment. Is it a mortgage , a business loan or what? It may be relevant that my name is not on the mortgage for our house and I have no debt whatsoever, but no deposit – what are my options? Thanks.
I completely understand what you’re saying. In my consideration of that situation (my partner being unable to work), I have placed a lot of emphasis on the potential capital growth of the properties. I think I need to do far more local research of this topic. I just personally know several people who rent out office spaces and they end up losing most of their profit to it. And when they move they lose a huge chunk of client base. If I were to buy a cheaper space that I can currently afford to pay off using my wages from my permanent and overhead free jobs; at least I have a chance of recouping my money through sales of the properties and/or income from the business. Whereas if I rent it is lost forever. But I also concede that I need some more experience before I dive off by myself. It’s frustrating.

State: Pennsylvania

We all know that investments in single family homes are now in trouble. Commercial real estate is not far behind.

How about investments in residential apartment buildings? Do they make sense? With excellent credit, financing is not an issue, and I don’t mind being a landlord. The question is do such investments carry the same market risks as the other not-so-good investments? After all, people still need to live somewhere and, theoretically, it looks like rentals should be a strong market. Is it?

Report: Mets Financial Troubles Mounting

The New York Post is reporting that the Wilpon family’s financial situation is so precarious that they cannot add payroll through trades. The report states that adding a front line starting pitcher is the least of their problems. Their debt load is so heavy and attendance is down so much this season that if the trend continues for a season or two, they may be forced to sell the team.

It was almost one year ago that I wrote about the Madoff mess causing talk of the Mets being forced to sell the team. Now those rumors are back. You never really know exactly what the financial situation of the team is. But it’s not a good sign when the rumors of trouble are consistent and persistent.

The key points of the NY Post article are:

* The team has nearly 0 million in debt
* The Mets are losing about million/year including depreciation and interest payments on the debt
* Attendance is down 19% from 2009 and down 35% from 2008
* SNY is profitable but is leveraged to roughly six times it’s earnings before interest
* The Wilpon family refinanced about 5 million in loans and kept million for themselves

The article has a little bit of information about the family’s investments in commercial real estate which has been in a down market for three years now. It doesn’t help that the Mets’ fortunes have been down for three years now either. And it won’t be easy to recover. The article states that one of the debt covenants prevents the team from increasing payroll. Taking on Roy Oswalt or Cliff Lee would be great this month. But the Mets can’t expect the Astros or Mariners to take back equal or more salary.

We may be stuck with the pitching staff as it stands now. Maybe John Maine or Oliver Perez will come back and start doing what seems unlikely to most of us. If not, we could be speculating on who will be buying the Mets in a couple of years. Hopefully, it won’t get to the point that the Rangers have this season.

I am a mechanical engineer and to date I have been an employee so small business ownership is new to me. I am at the very beginning stages of starting my first franchise. It is a small sandwich shop which will be about a 0-400k investment. My application to the Franchisor is still is in the approval process and I starting to put together a team of people to do this. So far I have: Attourney, Accountant (for both book keeping and taxes), A Commercial Real Estate Agent, Insurance Agent, Credit Union Loan Officer. Does anyone have any recommendations of other ‘must have’ people whom I should inlude?

Thanks in advance.

Lets assume I want to get into the business of buying and leasing commercial real estate. Can I just start an LLC or Incorporation, identify a property (ie: Office Complex for 0,000), then go to the Bank and say, My XYZ Corporation needs a loan to purchase a 0,000 complex that will be leased out for ,000/yr.

Would the Bank Grant the Loan, knowing the property secures the loan? Or will the bank demand that my XYZ Company have 0,000 in assets that will secure the loan outside of the property being purchased?

I am trying to break into the commercial real estate and I have a change to assume a note but I need 000 to take over the note I will be able to pay this amount back in 1 year or less depending on the terms.

So I have applied to about 20 scholarships already and plan to continue…but I’ve already been denied by 7 and it’s getting very discouraging. I’ve gotten Trustees Merit Scholarships from three of my schools, but of course…they’re private and the rest is still a bit of a challenge to pay for. My family makes about 90-100,000 a year…and I understand that that might be the biggest problem for me in receiving the scholarships…but my family went from literally rags to riches. When my parents had my brother in 1982, when they were still in Vietnam, my dad couldn’t even eat because he had to feed my mom and my brother. My mom even told me that she went as far as stealing yams from somebody’s field and my brother almost died because of malnutrition. So, our family has come a very, very long way.

Another adversity is that my mom experienced a lot of domestic abuse and we all know it’s because my dad at least got a high school education and she didn’t…so he discriminates her. These reasons are why I want to go to college so bad but I don’t want to have to have my family pay for my education. Majority of my financial aid are loans.

My question is why is it so hard for me to get scholarships otherwise? I have a background a showcase a true desire for a good future, I have a 3.96, did both honors, IB, and Running Start (dual credits), been involved in four school activities and held two leadership positions in them, interned at a commercial real estate firm for 17 months, helped with my family business since I was in 8th grade, and have had my share doing work in the community.

Most of the scholarships I apply for factor in "financial need" in their considerations…but I find it so unfair that a person who tries so hard might walk into college empty handed. I also hate that the adults are always telling me "oh, there’s so much money that goes unwanted every year" or "oh, there are millions of scholarships out there, even scholarships where you’ll be awarded for liking purple" or something which is ridiculous because those statements aren’t true at all. I don’t know anyone my year that has even applied for half as much as I did…seriously.

The t-bill bond market is starting to falter, so we are looking at maybe failure by May, 2010.

Second wave of bad commercial real estate loans due in 2011.

No jobs, unless we continue to hire census employees for the next few years.

Several hundred, perhaps thousands of commercial banks will fail in the next 2 years.

The fed will be unable to sell bonds, and will resort to printing money to pay bills.

By 2012, we are looking at 18% unemployment, negative GDP, double digit inflation, gasoline at 12 a gallon, and fury in the streets.

Opening a tanning salon(something neat and sophisticated looking.) has been in my plans since I was about 14. All during high school I was home schooled and I worked for my dad cleaning newly constructed houses/businesses before they were put on the market for sale or lease. That is until things went under and he had to file for bankruptcy on all of the residential and commercial real estate that he developed. The I went to Costco for 2 years. From the 4 or so years I worked during school, I hoarded nearly every penny I made so I could fulfill my dream as an entrepreneur when I graduated from high school.

Right after graduating from the Fulton County Public School System, I was set and went out looking for SOMETHING else to do to start my career in a self-owned business. Everything exceeded what my budget was set on until my dads good friends’ dad was retiring and selling his repo company. So, I knew then at that time that was my opportunity. Luckily he allowed me to finance everything since he owned the stuff and he also let me walk in his lot that he’s now leasing to me.

So I’ve been in the repossession/recovery business for over a year now and with the economy HOPEFULLY shaping up, I’ve really been thinking about getting rid of my trucks & selling everything(of course after I have another main source of income coming in). The main reason is because I fear in about 2-3 years from now, this economy will have improved greatly and there won’t be as much recovery work to cover all of my expenses associated with my company.

—OK so now my story about my young life is over, I’ll get to my main concern-

Although I’m only 19 now, I’ve had credit since I was 15(I lied about my DOB on credit card apps which has now been corrected with all 3 credit bureaus). Every since then I ALWAYS did right and kept my credit immaculate as it still is. My Transunion FICO through MyFico is at 738 and is slowly rising as my accounts grow older and as my personal vehicle is on its way to being fully paid off. I do have credit cards, but have {content} in credit card debt.

Since Mar. 8th 2009 to Dec. 31st 2009, my company has grossed approx. 0K. That number may be fairly large, but considering I have 3 other drivers/employees I pay commission to, repo insurance(nearly K for not even the full year), rent on my ex-car lot(just over K for not even the full year), tax, all utilities, and after going ahead and paying my "agent" off for financing the PC’s, software, trucks etc., that number was lowered significantly. Fortunately, 2010 so far is just as busy as it has been for the past 10 months and I’m even having to send repo orders back to finance companies from not having enough time to do them all(I’m not buying another truck).

Like I said, I’m really thinking about going into the tanning business and it’s a decision I’ll have to make between now and the next 2-3 years.

Would someone like me at my age(I will be 21-22yo then) have a hard time being approved for a 0K+ loan with the following factors:

Company grossed 0K.(Honestly I want to leave this out of the app.)
I netted about 0K during the last 3 quarters of ‘09.(before all of my personal bills/expenses.)
I have roughly K in assets(2 recovery trucks, a money market account, and other misc. things).
I have 3 checking accounts(2 personal, 1 business)
I have 2 savings accounts.
I have tax forms that have been filed and I also have bank and broker statements to prove my income.
I have above average+ personal credit but no business credit.(no debt besides personal vehicle which will be paid off in 2 years or sooner)
I have the knowledge, skill and common sense to know how to properly run a business.
I can produce a legitimate business proposal.
Hopefully within the next 2 or so years all of my assets and everything else will have grown.(if it doesn’t there’s a problem. lol)

I know this is a lot of info, but my life ahead is really sticking to my nerves and I need support. I saw how my dad went from one minute having a lot of real estate to the next minute having to dig into his retirement money, and I want to avoid this by all means possible.

I could be making a mistake by wanting to stop repossessing vehicles but as I said, I feel when this economy shapes up I won’t even be grossing enough to cover everything and I don’t want to lose my ***.

The big question, how will banks view my status when attempting to obtain a commercial loan for roughly 0K? Would it be best if I go through the SBA? Could I get the loan w/o having to include my total grossed income? I’m literally fretting over these things.

Thank all of you guys for your support.

I’m talking about commercial real estate? Forgot about that one did you DEMS? And you want to know why I think Stock Markets are going to crash? Look no further than commercial real estate loans going bad….The housing crises is small potatoes compared to this….Comments?

Seems the trend commercial real estate loss could reach 40-50% this year, so commercial loans could default, not to mention consumer Option-ARMs and Alt-A loans resetting , which is more likely than not to plunge the US economy back into a another recession or worse depression. I don’t see inflation as a problem now but more deflation. I would like to hear other opinions and please pass this question on. So … how would you counter invest this possibility? Diversity seems obvious, but in what categories?
Basics such as agriculture may become a prime opportunity, perhaps even more than precious metals?

First wave of sub-prime mortgage defaults over.

Second wave of mortgage defaults coming now to higher quality credit risks. These are people who have bought homes in the last five years and who have taken out home equity loans. Mortgages now going under water owe more than house is worth. This wave of defaults will take upwards of 10 to 12 months to clear.

Third wave of mortgage defaults due to begin this year and continue through 2011 are Option Arms and Altay; as payments are automatically resetting to higher rates. We saw some fail last month because of a 3% rate hike, next month is the beginning of the end as rates start to climb even higher.
Estimated – 8 million defaults in next four years.

As if this is not enough we have the next huge failure to come in the commercial real estate market, that will make the sub-prime fiasco look like kids play!

Then comes credit cards and auto loans in the end.

According to the nations largest commercial real estate firm, Marcus and Millichap, lenders are not liquidating distressed properties. Instead they are holding them and collecting the income until the market changes by paying management companies to run and improve the cash flow of the foreclosed businesses, shopping centers, apartments, etc.

All of a sudden banks are seriously in the commercial real estate business! They are not making new loans. Commercial loans and SBA loans are down somewhere like 95 percent this year!

Since banks made bad decisions to begin with why are they allowed to hold these assets instead of liquidate them like they should? A troubled bank should not be able to afford to hold these assets, let alone hire a management company. Are they able to afford it because of the bailout?

I am real estate salesperson for the commercial real estate industry and I’m upset because without loans, I have no business. Commercial sales in my office is down like 90 percent this year, and I work in an office with like 250 agents!

You are analyzing a commercial real estate investment that generates a net operating income of ,000,000 which increases by 3.5 percent per year. The purchase price is million, the land value is 20 percent of the total property value, the holding period is 10 years, the nominal income tax rate is 28 percent, the recapture tax rate is 25 percent and the long-term capital gain tax rate is 15 percent. A lender is willing to provide financing for the 10 year holding period with a 25 year amortization period for a fixed rate of 7 percent based on a loan to value ratio of 75 percent (25 percent equity). Calculate the before and after tax IRR and NPV based on a discount rate of 400 basis points above the going in cap rate and a terminal cap rate of 100 basis points over the going in cap rate. The cost of sale is three percent. What is the debt coverage ratio in year five?
I don’t expect anyone to do the math and answer this for me, but steps to solving it would be beneficial. I do not want the answer and I don’t want anyone to "do my homework" for me. It’s not homework either. I am just having a hard time figuring it out, especially the NPV and IRR. Any steps or comments would be much appreciated. Thanks

MIAMI – Like many home owners, hotels are starting to drown in debt.

They have been enticing travelers all year with sweet deals: credits for in-house spas and restaurants, up to 50 percent off five-star rooms, even free nights.

But all that discounting hasn’t stopped occupancy from dropping an average of 10 percent. The result? Hotel loans have begun falling into delinquency faster than any other kind of commercial real estate debt.

The rising defaults paint a grim picture for an industry with increasingly more rooms than guests, and more hotels still opening every day. It’s a problem that could get worse before it gets better, with demand expected to remain weak and ambitious new projects planned before the meltdown worsening the room glut.

The oversupply means room rates should stay low for at least another year, good news for consumers but not so great for hotel owners and the banks that lent them the cash to build or buy.

The rise in delinquencies is sharp. Five times more hotel loans are behind on payments this year than in 2008, according to mortgage data firm Trepp LLC, which tracks those traded by investors. In October, 8.7 percent were distressed, compared with 1.5 percent last year.

That’s almost double the 4.8 percent rate for commercial property and the 4.5 percent rate for stores.

Seems like people would be extremely concerned about a bankrupt govt. who can’t cover money they’ve already insured spending trillions more.

I understand FDIC could borrow money to cover any shorfalls (like the post office and a number of other debt creating federal agencies) but how long can this possibly last??

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090922/ap_on_bi_ge/us_banks_fdic_bailout

Regulators have approached big banks about borrowing billions to shore up the dwindling fund that insures regular deposit accounts.

The loans would go to the fund maintained by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. that insure depositors when banks fail, said two industry officials familiar with the conversations, who requested anonymity because the plans are still evolving.

Regulators also are considering levying a special emergency fee on all banks, charging regular fees early or tapping a 0 billion credit line with the U.S. Treasury, the officials said.

FDIC spokesman Andrew Gray said that while borrowing from the banks "is an option, it’s not being given serious consideration." The board meeting where the plans will be discussed is scheduled for next week.

But a government official familiar with the FDIC board’s thinking said earlier Tuesday that the plan was being considered. He requested anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the matter.

The fund, which insures deposit accounts up to 0,000, is at its lowest point since 1992, at the height of the savings-and-loan crisis. Ongoing losses on commercial real estate and other loans continue to cause multiple bank failures each week.

FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair wants to avoid tapping the Treasury credit line, and Treasury officials insist that the strongest big banks have enough extra capital to operate, the officials said. Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan, who is a voting member of the FDIC board, has said he doesn’t want to levy another fee on banks while the industry is still recovering.

FDIC is going to BORROW money in order to insure accounts. Well if the people that INSURE THE BANK ACCOUNTS don’t have any money, isn’t the whole system on the verge of collapse??

And in retrospect, isn’t the REAL reason the banks got bailed out because FDIC would have taken down the federal govt. with the TRILLIONS it is currently insuring?? (TRILLIONS it doesn’t have)

Too big to fail = if you fail, the govt.fails too

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090922/ap_on_bi_ge/us_banks_fdic_bailout

Regulators have approached big banks about borrowing billions to shore up the dwindling fund that insures regular deposit accounts.

The loans would go to the fund maintained by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. that insure depositors when banks fail, said two industry officials familiar with the conversations, who requested anonymity because the plans are still evolving.

Regulators also are considering levying a special emergency fee on all banks, charging regular fees early or tapping a 0 billion credit line with the U.S. Treasury, the officials said.

FDIC spokesman Andrew Gray said that while borrowing from the banks "is an option, it’s not being given serious consideration." The board meeting where the plans will be discussed is scheduled for next week.

But a government official familiar with the FDIC board’s thinking said earlier Tuesday that the plan was being considered. He requested anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the matter.

The fund, which insures deposit accounts up to 0,000, is at its lowest point since 1992, at the height of the savings-and-loan crisis. Ongoing losses on commercial real estate and other loans continue to cause multiple bank failures each week.

FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair wants to avoid tapping the Treasury credit line, and Treasury officials insist that the strongest big banks have enough extra capital to operate, the officials said. Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan, who is a voting member of the FDIC board, has said he doesn’t want to levy another fee on banks while the industry is still recovering.
brown………and?

There is a " Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility " whichi is supposed to " get credit flowing more normally again," It is for a trillion in lending for households and businesses, especially commercial real estate which is not doing so well lately

"Under the program, which got off to a slow start in March, the Fed provides loans to investors. They use the money to buy newly issued securities backed by auto and student loans, credit cards, business equipment, commercial real estate and loans guaranteed by the Small Business Administration."

Do you think this will get us out of the recession, or do you think it will get us into deeper trouble?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090925/ap_on_bi_ge/us_bernanke

A trillion dollar commercial real estate crisis will begin to unfold in 2010, when short term loans must be refinanced, yet commercial property values have plummeted.

As many as 500 regional banks may fail as commercial loans default, and the FDIC only has 10 billion left to cover insolvent banks. Compounding this Deuthsche Bank forecasts that 48% of home mortgages will owe more than the home is worth by the end of 2011.

Commercial real estate loans? How do they work
How do developers get money to build huge skyscrapers?
How do they pay these loans back?
I need details.

Commercial real estate loans? How do they work
How do developers get money to build huge skyscrapers?
How do they pay these loans back?
I need details.

I’ve been looking into investing in multi-family/commercial real estate near Cincinnati. I was talking to an old friend of mine about the possibility of no-money-down purchases. He said one deal he has been successful with in the past is where the purchase contract stipulates that you pay a 10% balloon payment due in 2 years, and that serves as the down payment. Have you seen anything similar to this? It seems pretty hard to manage unless you have a young desperate seller. However I would like to know if such easy transactions exist for investors with little to no capital.

I am interested in getting into commercial real estate, not sure what area….leasing, property management, lending, loan officer, I know it sounds cliche, but I basically just want to go where some big money can be made. I have a background in residential real estate as a loan officer and Account Executive for a subprime lender. From what I hear, people on the commercial side make some great money, it just seems that everyone wants someone with commercial experience. I am willing to pay my dues, training, mentoring, etc, but I just need to find somewhere to get my foot in the door. Any help?!

I am a licensed commercial real estate agent in phoenix, az, and am interested in providing insurance and mortgage services to my clients,essentially I want to be able to shop 5 lenders/insurance companies to provide my clients the best deals.

How do I identify 5 banks/insurance companies that do commercial transactions?

How much money can I make by providing these additional services assuming that all transactions are more than 300K ( for loans + insurance)

Thanks

I am a licensed commercial real estate agent in phoenix, az, and am interested in providing insurance and mortgage services to my clients,essentially I want to be able to shop 5 lenders/insurance companies to provide my clients the best deals.

How do I identify 5 banks/insurance companies that do commercial transactions?

How much money can I make by providing these additional services assuming that all transactions are more than 300K ( for loans + insurance)

Thanks

Reagan came to office in 1981 and soon after he presided over the dramatic deregulation of the nation’s savings and loan industry allowing S&Ls to end their reliance on home mortgages and engage in an orgy of commercial real estate speculation. The result was widespread corruption, mismanagement and the collapse of hundreds of thrift institutions that ultimately led to a taxpayer bailout that cost hundreds of billions of dollars.
Senior. When Reagan de-regularized the Saving Banks he invited them for game of corruption.
When George W Bush administration abandoned its role to over watch the mortgage banks it invited crises as we see now.
The ultra-ultra conservatives refuse to concede that without government supervision their will be corruption.
Nac. Do not get personal.
Bo. The Dems respect the role of the government. The Repub mantra is that the Government is the source of all evil. Now George W Bush who is Born Again ultra conservative did very bad job to monitor the mortgage industry bringing with it the crises we are in.
No one is talking about the Air Lines and I am not going to fall into this diversion trap.

In the USA, I read on the Securities Exchange Commission Website ( SEC) that Hedge Funds do not have to register with the SEC.
Are there any companies that offer a list of hedge funds for free? The reason I’m asking, is that I broker Commercial Loans. Typically, when I approach a hedge fund for financing on commercial real estate financing, I wind-up having to call other Loan brokers to get the names of the Hedge funds that they have gone to, and of course, I wind-up having to pay those brokers and sign non-disclosures just to get the name of the hedge fund that they used. I sick of dealing with other loan brokers, How can I get a list of Hedge Funds that I can apply to without having to go through other loan brokers?