I need a car, but i don’t have the money to do this right now. Also i heard that financing builds your credit up which is something i am interested in doing because while apartment hunting for 8months my credit score dropped from people running it constantly. Any advise?
I don’t want anything fancy or large, just simple and reliable.

Today on the news they were just telling us the American people what their plan was. Obama seems to be content with it so i dont know. But
i must say this doesn’t sound like what i thought he was trying to do.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said she expects her agency will finance as much as 0 billion in purchases of residential and commercial real estate loans.

okay so let me get this right.. The banks screwed us cause well their good talkers. Screwed themselves. We pay money we dont have. Alot of americans lost their homes due to greedy banks and people making us loose our job and our homes in forecloser. And now with our money they buy our homes with our money?

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=3906861&cl=12618169&ch=4226720&src=news

Wouldn’t it been better to just buy the houses from the start and let us stay in their and have some sort of i.o.u. policy?

what do you think?

I qualify for residential loan and I currently own a home..someone said I could use the equity…I’m new at buying a commercial property and I simply want to use 1 of the buildings for an art gallery and the other building as a small house…the other building is already a "house" w/ bedroom, kitchen, bathroom, etc. The property is in Harris/Houston…they have very few zoning restrictions as it is.

We paid off a line of credit loan from some of our business income last year. Where do I record this in my business tax return? FYI, it is an S Corporation.

Thanks.

My sister is a developer and has an investment company based in Dubai (over billion in assets). I am looking for a hard money lender in the U.S. (preferably NYC) for about million and want to use her land (we can use million worth of land) in Dubai as collateral.
Does anyone know where I can find a hard money lender who can/will do this. Any help would be greatly appreciated

Here’s an idea for a "bailout"
I’m in favor of giving ,000,000,000 to America in a "We Deserve
It Dividend. "

To make the math simple, let’s assume there are 200,000,000 true U.S. Citizens 18+.

Our population is about 301,000,000 +/- counting every man, woman and child. So 200,000,000 might be a fair stab at adults 18 and up..

So divide 200 million adults 18+ into billion that equals 5,000.00.

The plan would be to give 5,000 to every person 18+ as a We Deserve It Dividend.

Of course, it would NOT be tax free. So let’s assume a tax rate of 30%.

Every individual 18+ has to pay 7,500.00 in taxes. That sends
,500,000,000 right back to Uncle Sam.

But it means that every adult 18+ has 7,500.00 in their pocket. A husband and wife has 5,000.00.

What would you do with 7,500.00 t o 5,000.00 in your family?
Pay off your mortgage – housing crisis solved.
Repay college loans – what a great boost to new grads
Pay off your football pool debts
Put away money for college – it’ll be there
Save in a bank – create money to loan to entrepreneurs.
Buy a new car – create jobs
Invest in the market – capital drives growth
Pay for your parent’s medical insurance – health care improves
Enable Deadbeat Dads to come clean – or else

Remember this is for every adult U S Citizen 18+ including the folks who lost their jobs at Lehman Brothers and every other company
that is cutting back. And of course, for those serving in our Armed Forces.

If we’re going to re-distribute wealth let’s really do it…instead of
trickling out a puny 00.00 ( "vote buy" ) economic incentive that is
being proposed by one of our candidates for President.

If we’re going to do an billion bailout, let’s bail out every adult U S
Citizen 18+!

As for AIG – liquidate it.
Sell off its parts.
Let American General go back to being American General.
Sell off the real estate.
Let the private sector bargain hunters cut it up and clean it up.

Here’s our rationale. We deserve it and AIG doesn’t.

Sure it’s a crazy idea that can "never work."

But can you imagine the Coast-To-Coast Block Party!

How do you spell Economic Boom?

I trust my fellow adult Americans to know how to use the Billion We Deserve It Dividend more than I do the geniuses at AIG or in
Washington DC .

And remember, this plan only really costs .5 Billion because .5
Billion is returned instantly in taxes to Uncle Sam.

You know the gray-haired skinny guy who talks in that way-too-happy-and-calm voice about Countrywide home loans and refinances and stuff?

I don’t know what it is about him.

But every time a Countrywide commercial comes on, with him standing there next to those cheap PowerPoint-looking captions… it makes me want to throw something against the wall really hard.

AM I THE ONLY ONE WHO IS IRKED BY THAT GUY?!

1. Paulson appears on Face The Nation and says "Our banking system is a safe and a sound one." If the banking system was safe and sound, everyone would know it (or at least think it). There would be no need to say it.

2. Paulson says the list of troubled banks "is a very manageable situation". The reality is there are 90 banks on the list of problem banks. Indymac was not one of them until a month before it collapsed. How many other banks will magically appear on the list a month before they collapse?

3. In a Northern Rock moment, depositors at Indymac pull out their cash. Police had to be called in to ensure order.

4. Washington Mutual (WM), another troubled bank, refused to honor Indymac cashier’s checks. The irony is it makes no sense for customers to pull insured deposits out of Indymac after it went into receivership. The second irony is the last place one would want to put those funds would be Washington Mutual. Eventually Washington Mutual decided it would take those checks but with an 8 week hold. Will Washington Mutual even be around 8 weeks from now?

5. Paulson asked for "Congressional authority to buy unlimited stakes in and lend to Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE)" just days after he said "Financial Institutions Must Be Allowed To Fail". Obviously Paulson is reporting from the 5th dimension. In some alternate universe, his statements just might make sense.

6. Former Fed Governor William Poole says "Fannie Mae, Freddie Losses Makes Them Insolvent".

7. Paulson says Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are "essential" because they represent the only "functioning" part of the home loan market. The firms own or guarantee about half of the trillion in U.S. mortgages. Is it possible to have a sound banking system when the only "functioning" part of the mortgage market is insolvent?

8. Bernanke testified before Congress on monetary policy but did not comment on either money supply or interest rates. The word "money" did not appear at all in his testimony. The only time "interest rate" appeared in his testimony was in relation to consumer credit card rates. How can you have any reasonable economic policy when the Fed chairman is scared half to death to discuss interest rates and money supply?

9. The SEC issued a protective order to protect those most responsible for naked short selling. As long as the investment banks and brokers were making money engaging in naked shorting of stocks, there was no problem. However, when the bears began using the tactic against the big financials, it became time to selectively enforce the existing regulation.

10. The Fed takes emergency actions twice during options expirations week in regards to the discount window and rate cuts.

11. The SEC takes emergency action during options expirations week regarding short sales.

12. The Fed has implemented an alphabet soup of pawn shop lending facilities whereby the Fed accepts garbage as collateral in exchange for treasuries. Those new Fed lending facilities are called the Term Auction Facility (TAF), the Term Security Lending Facility (TSLF), and the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF).

13. Citigroup (C), Lehman (LEH), Morgan Stanley(MS), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Merrill Lynch (MER) all have a huge percentage of level 3 assets. Level 3 assets are commonly known as "marked to fantasy" assets. In other words, the value of those assets is significantly if not ridiculously overvalued in comparison to what those assets would fetch on the open market. It is debatable if any of the above firms survive in their present form. Some may not survive in any form.

14. Bernanke openly solicits private equity firms to invest in banks. Is this even close to a remotely normal action for Fed chairman to take?

15. Bear Stearns was taken over by JPMorgan (JPM) days after insuring investors it had plenty of capital. Fears are high that Lehman will suffer the same fate. Worse yet, the Fed had to guarantee the shotgun marriage between Bear Stearns and JP Morgan by providing as much as billion in capital. JPMorgan is responsible for only the first 1/2 billion. Taxpayers are on the hook for all the rest. Was this a legal action for the Fed to take? Does the Fed care?

16. Citigroup needed a cash injection from Abu Dhabi and a second one elsewhere. Then after announcing it would not need more capital is raising still more. The latest news is Citigroup will sell 0 billion in assets. To who? At what price?

17. Merrill Lynch raised .6 billion in capital from Kuwait Mizuho, announced it did not need to raise more capital, then raised more capital a few week later.

18. Morgan Stanley sold a 9.9% equity stake to China International Corp. CEO John Mack compensated by not taking his bonus. How generous. Morgan Stanley fell from to . Did CEO John Mack deserve a paycheck at all?

19. Bank of America (BAC) agreed to take over Countywide Financial (CFC) and twice announced Countrywide will add profits to B of A. Inquiring minds were asking "How the hell can Countrywide add to Bank of America earnings?" Here’s how. Bank of America just announced it will not guarantee .1 billion in Countrywide debt. Questions over "Fraudulent Conveyance" are now surfacing.

20. Washington Mutual agreed to a death spiral cash infusion of billion accepting an offer at .75 when the stock was over at the time. Washington Mutual has since fallen in waterfall fashion from and is now trading near .00 after a huge rally.

21. Shares of Ambac (ABK) fell from to .50. Shares of MBIA (MBI) fell from to . Sadly, the top three rating agencies kept their rating on the pair at AAA nearly all the way down. No one can believe anything the government sponsored rating agencies say.

22. In a panic set of moves, the Fed slashed interest rates from 5.25% to 2%. This was the fastest, steepest drop on record. Ironically, the Fed chairman spoke of inflation concerns the entire drop down. Bernanke clearly cannot tell the truth. He does not have to. Actions speak louder than words.

23. FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said the FDIC is looking for ways to shore up its depleted deposit fund, including charging higher premiums on riskier brokered deposits.

24. There is roughly .84 Trillion in bank deposits. .60 Trillion of that is uninsured. There is only billion in FDIC insurance to cover .84 Trillion in bank deposits. Indymac will eat up roughly billion of that.

25. Of the .84 Trillion in bank deposits, the total cash on hand at banks is a mere 3.7 Billion. Where is the rest of the loot? The answer is in off balance sheet SIVs, imploding commercial real estate deals, Alt-A liar loans, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds, toggle bonds where debt is amazingly paid back with more debt, and all sorts of other silly (and arguably fraudulent) financial wizardry schemes that have bank and brokerage firms leveraged at 30-1 or more. Those loans cannot be paid back.

What cannot be paid back will be defaulted on. If you did not know it before, you do now. The entire US banking system is insolvent.
I have my garden, well stocked pantry sheld, outdoor stove, fire wood and propone burners. This will get worse…much much worse……..good luck to all!!….be prepared

I’ve been a commercial real estate agent for 5 years now and for the first 4 years it was going fine. However, as many of you know, commercial real estate loans are going bad, and along with it, many banks are not lending. My brokerage is a very specialized brokerage. It is a car wash brokerage. Many commercial real estate brokers specialize in hotels, office buildings, apartments, etc. My business partner and I specialize in car washes. Unfortunately for us, most banks will not lend money on a car wash. They are still much more lenient on apartments, hotels, offices, but car washes have been very very bad investments for banks coming out of the real estate boom. As a result, I do not see my brokerage doing ANY deals this year, or in the near future. In the meantime I’m running out of cash and fast.What should I do? Since I’m technically self employed I have plenty of time to search for a job, but the reality is that if I was truly serious about leaving this career now, I would simply quit and start a new career asap. I’m 29 years old and started doing this right out of college. I feel confident that I can take a pay cut and start a new career somewhere else. At this point it seems almost inevitable that I’m going to have quit soon. My question, therefore, is does it make a difference if I search for a job only part time, or should I quit now and put all my effort into finding a job now while I still can afford to pay rent, and still have some money in the bank? 10 pts for best answer.
Well I’d like to continue doing something in the real estate world, but I don’t have time to just limit it to real estate so I’m applying to all kinds of jobs. I’m in Los Angeles so jobs are far and few. If all else fails I’m thinking of joining the Navy as an Officer.

It is a 1 million dollar cash out, on a 2.5 million dollar piece of property in Texas. Thanks in advance.

I tried to refi money my home when the market was good and got talked into getting a loan trough a hard lender .. now my interest is at 12.5 and I cant get them to refinance my loan ……plus my credit is not that good… I know obama passed a law in February to help homeowners does that apply me.?

Interesting email:

I’m against the ,000,000,000.00 bailout of AIG.
> Instead, I’m in favor of giving ,000,000,000 to
> America in a We Deserve It Dividend.
>
> To make the math simple, let’s assume there are
> 200,000,000 bonafide U.S. Citizens 18+. Our population is
> about 301,000,000 +/- counting every man, woman and child.
> So 200,000,000 might be a fair stab at adults 18 and up.
>
> So divide 200 million adults 18+ into billon that
> equals 5,000.00.
>
> My plan is to give 5,000 to every person 18+ as a We
> Deserve It Dividend. Of course, it would NOT be tax free. So
> let’s assume a tax rate of 30%. Every individual 18+ has
> to pay 7,500.00 in taxes. That sends ,500,000,000
> right back to Uncle Sam. But it means that every adult 18+
> has 7,500.00 in their pocket. A husband and wife has
> 5,000.00. What would you do with 7,500.00 to
> 5,000.00 in your family?
>
> Pay off your mortgage – housing crisis solved.
>
> Repay college loans – what a great boost to new grads
>
> Put away money for college – it’ll be there.
>
> Save in a bank – create money to loan to entrepreneurs.
>
> Buy a new car – create jobs
>
> Invest in the market – capital drives growth
>
> Pay for your parent’s medical insurance – health care
> improves
>
> Enable Deadbeat Dads to come clean – or else
>
> Remember this is for every adult U S Citizen 18+ including
> the folks who lost their jobs at Lehman Brothers and every
> other company that is cutting back. And of course, for those
> serving in our Armed Forces. If we’re going to
> re-distribute wealth let’s really do it…instead of
> trickling out a puny 00.00 ( "vote buy" )
> economic incentive that is being proposed by one of our
> candidates for President.
>
> If we’re going to do an billion bailout, let’s
> bail out every adult U S Citizen 18+!
>
> As for AIG – liquidate it.
>
> Sell off its parts.
>
> Let American General go back to being American General.
>
> Sell off the real estate.
>
> Let the private sector bargain hunters cut it up and clean
> it up. Here’s my rationale. We deserve it and AIG
> doesn’t. Sure it’s a crazy idea that can "never
> work." But can you imagine the Coast-To-Coast Block
> Party! How do you spell Economic Boom? I trust my fellow
> adult Americans to know how to use the Billion We
> Deserve It Dividend more than I do the geniuses at AIG or in
> Washington DC . And remember, The Birk plan only really
> costs .5 Billion because .5 Billion is returned
> instantly in taxes to Uncle Sam.

I’ve been a commercial real estate agent for 5 years now and for the first 4 years it was going fine. However, as many of you know, commercial real estate loans are going bad, and along with it, many banks are not lending. My brokerage is a very specialized brokerage. It is a car wash brokerage. Many commercial real estate brokers specialize in hotels, office buildings, apartments, etc. My business partner and I specialize in car washes. Unfortunately for us, most banks will not lend money on a car wash. They are still much more lenient on apartments, hotels, offices, but car washes have been very very bad investments for banks coming out of the real estate boom. As a result, I do not see my brokerage doing ANY deals this year, or in the near future. In the meantime I’m running out of cash and fast.What should I do? Since I’m technically self employed I have plenty of time to search for a job, but the reality is that if I was truly serious about leaving this career now, I would simply quit and start a new career asap. I’m 29 years old and started doing this right out of college. I feel confident that I can take a pay cut and start a new career somewhere else. At this point it seems almost inevitable that I’m going to have quit soon. My question, therefore, is does it make a difference if I search for a job only part time, or should I quit now and put all my effort into finding a job now while I still can afford to pay 3 more months rent, and still have some money for food?
I appreciate the optimism guys but at this point a change in course is highly unlikely for me. My business partner just started our new marketing campaign and we are indeed headed in a new direction: apartments. However, I have about 4 months left before I’m broke, and since we are untested in the apartment market I think it would be prudent to either (a) jump ship now or (b) get a new career.

Upto 60% of the market value against self occupied residential property and 40 % against vaccant or rented residentioal property..Upto 50% of the market value against self occupied Autorized commercial property.Rate of interest can vary between 9.75 to 10.50%.Processing Fees Can be anything between 1 % to 3 % depending on the loan amount.Above 40 Lacks it’s 1 % for term loan.Term loan ,OD and lease rental discounting available.

Are there commercial lenders who will go lower?
This is my first commercial property. I’m starting to get into it. I’ve called another broker to see if I could get another rate.

My credit is excellent! Thank you!!!

My small business wants to offer a line of credit to a larger company and we have obtained their credit references. What questions should I ask the references?

This is a little long, sorry, but I thought it was kinda funny how an "Average Joe" can make so much sense.

The Birk Economic Recovery Plan

Hi Pals,

I’m against the ,000,000,000.00 bailout of AIG.

Instead, I’m in favor of giving ,000,000,000 to America in a ‘We Deserve It Dividend’.

To make the math simple, let’s assume there are 200,000,000 bon-a-fide U.S. Citizens 18+.

Our population is about 301,000,000 +/- counting every man, woman and child. So 200,000,000 might be a fair stab at adults 18 and up..

So divide 200 million adults 18+ into billon that equals 5,000.00.

My plan is to give 5,000 to every person 18+ as a ‘We Deserve It Dividend’.

Of course, it would NOT be tax free. So let’s assume a tax rate of 30%.

Every individual 18+ has to pay 7,500.00 in taxes. That sends ,500,000,000 right back to Uncle Sam.

But it means that every adult 18+ has 7,500.00 in their pocket. A husband and wife has 5,000.00.

What would you do with 7,500.00 to 5,000.00 in your family?
Pay off your mortgage – housing crisis solved.
Repay college loans – what a great boost to new grads
Put away money for college – it’ll be there
Save in a bank – create money to loan to entrepreneurs.
Buy a new car – create jobs
Invest in the market – capital drives growth
Pay for your parent’s medical insurance – health care improves
Enable Deadbeat Dads to come clean – or else

Remember this is for every adult U S Citizen 18+ including the folks who lost their jobs at Lehman Brothers and every other company that is cutting back. And of course, for those serving in our Armed Forces.

If we’re going to re-distribute wealth let’s really do it…instead of trickling out a puny 00.00 ( "vote buy" ) economic incentive that is being proposed by one of our candidates for President.

If we’re going to do an billion bailout, let’s bail out every adult U S Citizen 18+!

As for AIG – liquidate it.
Sell off its parts.
Let American General go back to being American General.
Sell off the real estate.
Let the private sector bargain hunters cut it up and clean it up.

Here’s my rationale. We deserve it and AIG doesn’t.

Sure it’s a crazy idea that can "never work."

But can you imagine the Coast-To-Coast Block Party!

How do you spell Economic Boom?

I trust my fellow adult Americans to know how to use the Billion ‘We Deserve It Dividend’ more than I do the geniuses at AIG or in Washington DC .

And remember, The Birk plan only really costs .5 Billion because .5 Billion is returned instantly in taxes to Uncle Sam.

Ahhh…I feel so much better getting that off my chest.

Kindest personal regards,

Birk

T. J. Birkenmeier, A Creative Guy & Citizen of the Republic

PS: Feel free to pass this along to your pals as it’s either good for a laugh or a tear or a very sobering thought on how to best use Billion!!

[clue: Before you accuse "you people" of being illiterate, please check your grammar and punctuation first.]

This was meant as a joke; obviously I placed it in the wrong place. My appologies.
Sorry typo, I meant apologies.

At what point in a 30-year mortgage does it make sense to refinance? Is a refi based on equity in the house or is it based on another factor? After a br, when is the time to refi? What credit score is minimum to refi? Mine is over 650. Also, my property has increased in value, there’s new construction, both commercial and residential, near my house and the football field.
I ask because one banker told me to wait until I owned a quarter of the house in equity. Is that accurate?
Thank you.

I form non bias opinion on answers. I will provide evidence on why we are in a recession. If you don’t agree then that is you’re own decision and it is respected by me. However I will challenge you to see what parts of this info is not seen in the market…and why it cannot be defined as a recession.

THIS IS LONG BUT IT PROVIDES REASON FOR WHY IT IS A RECESSION:
The public was addressed by the secretary of state three weeks ago with the state of our economy. It was concluded there was a sign of recession on way. However, many believe this started in November as did the subrime lending create decrease in mortgage lending. I am one of those people. I don’t believe that subrime lending was the only cause. So since subrime lending fiasco started two consecutive periods ago….this indeed has led to a economic fall. GDP is important…and I have seen it fall also…but it has not reached two consecutive periods…but it will, no doubt. (that is my own opinion) Note that the GDP-growth (real seasonally adjusted annual rate) for the last quarter of 2007 was 0.6[31] as revised on February 28, 2008. It was 2.2 for all of 2007.

Nouriel Roubini has outlined a harsh 12-step scenario.[32]

U.S. home prices will fall between 20% and 30% from their peak. NYTimes chart ALSO TODAY IT WAS ANNOUNCED THEY HAVE FALLEN 60%
Losses to the financial system from the subprime disaster, as high as 0 billion, are now spreading to near-prime and prime mortgages.
The recession will lead to a sharp increase in defaults on other forms of unsecured consumer debt.
Monoline insurance companies will take losses on their insurance of residential mortgage-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations and other asset-backed securities products, which are much higher than the billion-to- billion rescue package that regulators are trying to arrange.
The commercial real estate loan market will soon enter into a meltdown similar to the subprime one.
Some large regional or even national banks that are very exposed to mortgages, residential and commercial, may go bankrupt. Bear Stearns Companies, Inc. collapsed on March 16, 2008, and was bought out by JP Morgan Chase.
Banks’ losses will grow as a result of hundreds of billions of dollars of leveraged loans on their balance sheets at values well below par, currently about 90 cents on the dollar.
Once a severe recession starts, a massive wave of corporate defaults will take place. Typically U.S. corporate default rates are about 3.8% (1971-2007); in 2006 and 2007 this figure was a rather low 0.6%. And in a typical U.S. recession such default rates surge above 10%.
The “shadow banking system” (as defined by Pimco, it is composed by non-bank financial institutions that borrow short and in liquid forms and lend or invest long in more illiquid assets), will soon get into serious trouble.
Stock markets in the U.S. and overseas will start pricing in a severe U.S. recession and a sharp global economic slowdown.
The credit crunch that is affecting most credit markets and credit derivative markets will lead to a drying up of liquidity in several financial markets, including otherwise very liquid derivatives markets.
A vicious cycle of losses, capital reduction, credit contraction, forced liquidation of assets at below fundamental prices will ensue, leading to further credit contraction
Any questions?
John…man are you serious…"labeling"?

C’mon…now. GDP is gonna say the same thing I pulled off wikipedia. So what are you getting at? You have to come out with something more than characterizing my question as labeling. No offense…i mean you are the only one that answered in 30 minutes. So its looking like people aren’t conflicting with a recession being here. Thats good.
Good answer though.
Piatchi..thats a great analogy…lol. Bear Sterns was baught by JP Morgan and Chase when it had substancial losses…but hey it DID survive the depression. Just take a look at any site it will give more info. Thanks for answer.

The loan is for some multi-family/mixed use apartments. Need a loan for ,000 for the down payment or some place where i can get a commercial loan with no money down. I was thinking a bridge loan but not real sure. I have a retail credit score of 645 and two other properties.

I started a company with another person and he asked me to apply for business line of credits for the company to use. He then max-ed out the money on the credits. I’m now no longer with the company, but that person is not responding to my requests of him taking over the line of credits responsibility. What I can do? Thanks

I’m looking to invest in real estate through hard money loans and after some research and talking to some advisors in the field I found that you only make profit on these type deals when they are sold since the property is being used as collateral.
I’ve also heard that you can refinance the property brought with hard money, but I didn’t think this was possible since its already being used as collateral with the hard money. Can someone please share their knowledge with profiting from hard money deals. Thanks in advance.

WHAT TIME FRAME OF THE YEAR DO YOU THINK WE WILL BE IN A BULL MARKET? I THINK THE DOW WON’T BE ABOVE 9,500 TILL MID 2010, TILL THEN IT WILL STAY VOLATILE FOR MANY REASONS THAT ARE LISTED BELOW……………..

October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February. ~Mark Twain

While there is much to celebrate this year, we find little cause for joy when looking at the financial markets. While many pundits have predicted that the final closing low in the bear market was reached on November 20th, we at Hurricane Capital Global Alpha Fund still believe there will be more red than green in the stock market in 2009.

However, during every major bear market since World War II, the time to buy stocks was after a 30-50% decline in the S&P 500. So one may ask why we would recommend something different this time around. In the spirit of Christmas, we present twelve reasons why there is more downside to the stock market in 2009.

1. Valuation: Historically the price to earnings ratio (P/E) and price to book ratio (P/B) of a stock or index is considered cheap when trading at less than ten to one and one to one respectively. Stocks in the US bottomed with at a P/E of 7 in July 1982. During the Great Depression, Benjamin Graham wrote about how many of the greatest US companies would be worth more if liquidated for the cash on their balance sheets than kept. These stocks were trading below their net current assets.

According to Bloomberg, the Russell 3000, which incorporates 98% of the market cap of us stocks, has a trailing P/E of 24.64 and a P/B of 1.68. Despite the massive drop that occurred in 2008, it would be tough to characterize the market as cheap from a historical perspective.

2. Housing Prices Crashing: The latest monthly reading of the Case-Shiller home price index from October 2008 showed a drop of 18.04% year over year, the largest drop on record. Amazingly, the drop in home prices is still accelerating two years into the decline. We are not going to find a bottom in the market until the pace of decline slows significantly. The massive tailwind the US consumer had been receiving from equity extractions has officially ended.

3. Debt Destruction: American consumers doubled household debt this decade while incomes stagnated. Consumers adding a trillion dollars in debt ever year on average for the first 7 years of the decade. Two trillion in consumer credit lines may be pulled in 2009, and home equity extractions are done for the foreseeable future. Another way to look at this is consumers would have a trillion dollar pullback in spending from 2007 levels if debt stops expanding. Debt destruction, which we believe is going to occur, means purchases would have to decline by over a trillion dollars. This would mark the first significant destruction of debt in the US since the 1930s. Growth of household debt to GDP did not start increasing again, until after World War II, over a decade later.

4. More Writedowns: We have another trillion or so of losses to take in the commercial real estate, jumbo mortgage, prime mortgage, leveraged loans, asset backed, corporate bond and credit default swap markets. This is assuming subprime and Alt-A are now priced correctly. On second thought, considering the debt destruction process, it could be more like 1.5 trillion.

5. US Corporate Earnings Collapse: Corporate earnings estimates are way too high. The consumer is dead due to the debt destruction, and there is another trillion (give or take) in losses yet to be realized across the financial sector. Almost all earnings growth in the first half of 2008 came from oil, basic materials and technology. Pricing has collapsed in all three areas. We have not yet seen the price collapse reflected in the EPS of companies in these industries. We will see it in 2009. Be wary of people touting cheap stocks based on future earnings. Trailing twelve month earnings on the S&P are .91 a share. The average analyst estimate on Bloomberg for the S&P 500 is currently .69 per share for 2009. There is absolutely no way companies will earn more in 2009 than in 2008. None.

6. Corporate Credit: Credit spreads are at levels where companies cannot fund themselves and survive. This is if companies can roll their debt at all. Much of the lending during the last 5 years was never meant to be paid back. Spreads on CCC bonds hit 40% in December. There are loan sharks who charge better rates than this. The debt markets are still closed for virtually everything high yield.

7. 12.5% Underemployment: And rising fast.

8. No Savings: The savings rate was under 2% from 2005-2007. Interest rates were low, and lots of spare money was funneled into the stock market. It always goes up if you buy and hold. Right? This was conventional thinking anyway. Many people now need this money to live on. This means

I’m against the ,000,000,000.00 bailout of AIG.

Instead, I’m in favor of giving ,000,000,000 to America in
a We Deserve It Dividend.

To make the math simple, let’s assume there are 200,000,000
bonafide U.S. Citizens 18+.

Our population is ab out 301,000,000 +/- counting every man, woman
and child. So 200,000,000 might be a fair stab at adults 18 and up..

So divide 200 million adults 18+ into billon that equals 5,000.00.

My plan is to give 5,000 to every person 18+ as a
We Deserve It Dividend.

Of course, it would NOT be tax free.
So let’s assume a tax rate of 30%.

Every individual 18+ has to pay 7,500.00 in taxes.
That sends ,500,000,000 right back to Uncle Sam.

But it means that every adult 18+ has 7,500.00 in their pocket.
A husband and wife has 5,000.00.

What would you do with 7,500.00 to 95,000.00 in your family?
Pay off your mortgage – housing crisis solved.
Repay college loans – what a great boost to new grads
Put away money for college – it’ll be there
Save in a bank – create money to loan to entrepreneurs.
Buy a new car – create jobs
Invest in the market – capital drives growth
Pay for your parent’s medical insurance – health care improves
Enable Deadbeat Dads to come clean – or else

Remember this is for every adult U S Citizen 18+ including the folks
who lost their jobs at Lehman Brothers and every other company
that is cutting back. And of course, for those serving in our Armed Forces.

If we’re going to re-distribute wealth let’s really do it…instead of trickling out
a puny 00.00 ( “vote buy” ) economic incentive that is being proposed by one of our candidates for President.

If we’re going to do an billion bailout, let’s bail out every adult U S Citizen 18+!

As for AIG – liquidate it.
Sell off its parts.
Let American General go back to being American General.
Sell off the real estate.
Let the private sector bargain hunters cut it up and clean it up.

Here’s my rationale. We deserve it and AIG doesn’t.

Sure it’s a crazy idea that can “never work.”

But can you imagine the Coast-To-Coast Block Party!

How do you spell Economic Boom?

I trust my fellow adult Americans to know how to use the Billion
We Deserve It Dividend more than I do the geniuses at AIG or in Washington DC .

And remember, The Birk plan only really costs .5 Billion because .5 Billion is returned
instantly in taxes to Uncle Sam.

Ahhh…I feel so much better getting that off my chest.

This is from an email I recieved…I wish I could take credit for this but I can’t…

I form non bias opinion on answers. I will provide evidence on why we are in a recession. If you don’t agree then that is you’re own decision and it is respected by me. However I will challenge you to see what parts of this info is not seen in the market…and why it cannot be defined as a recession.

THIS IS LONG BUT IT PROVIDES REASON FOR WHY IT IS A RECESSION:
The public was addressed by the secretary of state three weeks ago with the state of our economy. It was concluded there was a sign of recession on way. However, many believe this started in November as did the subrime lending create decrease in mortgage lending. I am one of those people. I don’t believe that subrime lending was the only cause. So since subrime lending fiasco started two consecutive periods ago….this indeed has led to a economic fall. GDP is important…and I have seen it fall also…but it has not reached two consecutive periods…but it will, no doubt. (that is my own opinion) Note that the GDP-growth (real seasonally adjusted annual rate) for the last quarter of 2007 was 0.6[31] as revised on February 28, 2008. It was 2.2 for all of 2007.

Nouriel Roubini has outlined a harsh 12-step scenario.[32]

U.S. home prices will fall between 20% and 30% from their peak. NYTimes chart ALSO TODAY IT WAS ANNOUNCED THEY HAVE FALLEN 60%
Losses to the financial system from the subprime disaster, as high as 0 billion, are now spreading to near-prime and prime mortgages.
The recession will lead to a sharp increase in defaults on other forms of unsecured consumer debt.
Monoline insurance companies will take losses on their insurance of residential mortgage-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations and other asset-backed securities products, which are much higher than the billion-to- billion rescue package that regulators are trying to arrange.
The commercial real estate loan market will soon enter into a meltdown similar to the subprime one.
Some large regional or even national banks that are very exposed to mortgages, residential and commercial, may go bankrupt. Bear Stearns Companies, Inc. collapsed on March 16, 2008, and was bought out by JP Morgan Chase.
Banks’ losses will grow as a result of hundreds of billions of dollars of leveraged loans on their balance sheets at values well below par, currently about 90 cents on the dollar.
Once a severe recession starts, a massive wave of corporate defaults will take place. Typically U.S. corporate default rates are about 3.8% (1971-2007); in 2006 and 2007 this figure was a rather low 0.6%. And in a typical U.S. recession such default rates surge above 10%.
The “shadow banking system” (as defined by Pimco, it is composed by non-bank financial institutions that borrow short and in liquid forms and lend or invest long in more illiquid assets), will soon get into serious trouble.
Stock markets in the U.S. and overseas will start pricing in a severe U.S. recession and a sharp global economic slowdown.
The credit crunch that is affecting most credit markets and credit derivative markets will lead to a drying up of liquidity in several financial markets, including otherwise very liquid derivatives markets.
A vicious cycle of losses, capital reduction, credit contraction, forced liquidation of assets at below fundamental prices will ensue, leading to further credit contraction
I agree. One "economist" proceeded to call me every name in the book and told me i don’t understand propensity. This is nothing but coin-tossing guestimations.

In detail: Loan process, qualification and requirements. I am a Real Estate Agent (residential only) and want to invest in commercial property but I am not sure where to start. What requirements are there for the loan. Can you get 80% or more financing. I really would like some input. I will provide more details if needed. Thx yall

Who is the most competitive commercial lender in Oklahoma?

so i have a busness and i gave a subdealer a line of credit to order equipment for our jobs, our busness partership fell through. the x partner is under an assumption i owe them money still so he ordered equipment on my line of credit knowingly that we werent doing business no more. The company who has the line of credit, and not who ordered it is the rightfull owner of the equipment, correct? regardless who ordered it?